103 - Mostly Right,
Less Wrong
According to multiple
sources on the Internet, the average amount of remotely conscious decisions an
adult makes each day equals about 35,000. In contrast, young children only make
about 3,000 decisions each day.
Consciously or not, our
brains are constantly in action making decisions most of the times. Mostly, most decisions are not
that particularly serious irrespective if the decisions are right or wrong or
perhaps we can term is as harmless decision.
Take an example, a
person is thinking of buying KFC as dinner for his family on his way home from
work, but in the last minute there, he changes his mind and buy Nasi Kandar
instead. To his family, a KFC or a Nasi Kandar dinner is still a dinner after
all.
Of course there will
also be other important decisions to make that one hopes to make correctly. The
consequences could have a impact on us if our decisions turn out to be a poor one.
If one is an investor at
Bursa Malaysia, one is constantly making decisions to buy, sell or hold. We can
never be right all the times. But if we are
able to make more right
decisions than wrong decisions,
then the chances of winning money from the stock market is brighter than the
chances of losing.
One only has to reflect
back on his previous shares transactions to determine if most of his previous
decisions was mostly right or wrong ones.
In the past, I was able
to make mostly right decisions especially the last decade till end of 2015. Not only that, those
mostly right decisions were major ones that resulted in profits of over 100% or
more than RM1.
When I did some analysis
back, I realised most of my decisions NOT
to sell too early (profit of between 10% to 30% range) were very decisive ones. Most of my friends and followers had already sold off. If I had sold
off early, it would still be a right decision, but the profit would just be
nothing compared to a profit margin of over 100% or above RM1.
So sticking to a
pre-target profit-taking range is vital. If I had aimed for a profit range of
10-30%, my profit margin would be at that range. But because I DECIDED that my profit-taking
range is much more than that (and also daring to hold and hold each time it
rises more than it succumbed to mild profit-takings sessions in between), the
end result is a big difference.
But then again, not
every time my decision to only realised profits after it touched a 100% or RM1
level (whichever comes first or both) is always correct.
Readers would know by
now how much I missed out for not taking profits when Focus Lumber Berhad
rose over 100% and RM1 level as well over a space of one year plus after my
initial and subsequences purchases again.
Many of my friends and
followers were already exiting the counter when it was rising above the RM2
levels. When it rose above the RM3 level, it coincided with its just concluded 10 sen dividend. Perhaps
that 10 sen dividend coupled with the earlier interim of 5 sen dividend CHANGED my mind to keep this
stock for the longer term.
Being a dividend lover,
I reckoned that if it can pays a total of 15 sen dividends a year, the stock
should stay at least at RM3. Well, I was wrong especially when its subsequent
quarterly earnings posted lesser profits.
This proved that my
decisions are not always right, but so far the decisions have been MOSTLY RIGHT and luckily LESS WRONG. This made a very big difference between winnings bigger and smaller
profits.
Lately, especially since
I started Kassim's Basket of Defensive stocks beginning on Dec 17, 2015, my
usual decisions (for margin of 100% or RM1) has hardly see the light of the
day.
Except for Harrisons Holdings (M) Berhad (which
crossed the RM1 level profit margin), the rest are mostly in negative positions
instead! Though several of the stocks actually went up as much as between
10-20% range, (meaning profits could have been realised) but I had already
decided that was NOT my target profits.
Those decisions have now
turned to be MOSTLY WRONG ones, those stocks with 10-20% range profits in hand are now in negative
areas. Berjaya Sports Toto Berhad is the worst one, having dropped to an unbelievable 10-year low!
The good thing about
this Kassim's Basket of Defensive Stocks is most of the chosen stocks are
paying dividends and soon we will see the gradual increasing amounts of
dividends received over the time.
