103 - Mostly Right, Less Wrong

103 - Mostly Right,

Less Wrong

According to multiple sources on the Internet, the average amount of remotely conscious decisions an adult makes each day equals about 35,000. In contrast, young children only make about 3,000 decisions each day.

Consciously or not, our brains are constantly in action making decisions most of  the times. Mostly, most decisions are not that particularly serious irrespective if the decisions are right or wrong or perhaps we can term is as harmless decision.

Take an example, a person is thinking of buying KFC as dinner for his family on his way home from work, but in the last minute there, he changes his mind and buy Nasi Kandar instead. To his family, a KFC or a Nasi Kandar dinner is still a dinner after all.

Of course there will also be other important decisions to make that one hopes to make correctly. The consequences could have a impact on us if our decisions  turn out to be a poor one.

If one is an investor at Bursa Malaysia, one is constantly making decisions to buy, sell or hold. We can never be right all the times. But if we are  able to make more right decisions than wrong decisions, then the chances of winning money from the stock market is brighter than the chances of losing.

One only has to reflect back on his previous shares transactions to determine if most of his previous decisions was mostly right or wrong ones.

In the past, I was able to make mostly right decisions especially the last decade till end of 2015. Not only that, those mostly right decisions were major ones that resulted in profits of over 100% or more than RM1.

When I did some analysis back, I realised most of my decisions NOT to sell too early (profit of between 10% to 30% range) were very decisive ones. Most of my friends and followers had already sold off. If I had sold off early, it would still be a right decision, but the profit would just be nothing compared to a profit margin of over 100% or above RM1.

So sticking to a pre-target profit-taking range is vital. If I had aimed for a profit range of 10-30%, my profit margin would be at that range. But because I DECIDED that my profit-taking range is much more than that (and also daring to hold and hold each time it rises more than it succumbed to mild profit-takings sessions in between), the end result is a big difference.

But then again, not every time my decision to only realised profits after it touched a 100% or RM1 level (whichever comes first or both) is always correct.

Readers would know by now how much I missed out for not taking profits when Focus Lumber Berhad rose over 100% and RM1 level as well over a space of one year plus after my initial and subsequences purchases again.

Many of my friends and followers were already exiting the counter when it was rising above the RM2 levels. When it rose above the RM3 level, it coincided with  its just concluded 10 sen dividend. Perhaps that 10 sen dividend coupled with the earlier interim of 5 sen dividend CHANGED my mind to keep this stock for the longer term.

Being a dividend lover, I reckoned that if it can pays a total of 15 sen dividends a year, the stock should stay at least at RM3. Well, I was wrong especially when its subsequent quarterly earnings posted lesser profits.

This proved that my decisions are not always right, but so far the decisions have been MOSTLY RIGHT and luckily LESS WRONG. This made a very big difference between winnings bigger and smaller profits.

Lately, especially since I started Kassim's Basket of Defensive stocks beginning on Dec 17, 2015, my usual decisions (for margin of 100% or RM1) has hardly see the light of the day.

Except for Harrisons Holdings (M) Berhad (which crossed the RM1 level profit margin), the rest are mostly in negative positions instead! Though several of the stocks actually went up as much as between 10-20% range, (meaning profits could have been realised) but I had already decided that was NOT my target profits.

Those decisions have now turned to be MOSTLY WRONG ones, those stocks with 10-20% range profits in hand are now in negative areas. Berjaya Sports Toto Berhad is the worst one, having dropped to an unbelievable 10-year low!

The good thing about this Kassim's Basket of Defensive Stocks is most of the chosen stocks are paying dividends and soon we will see the gradual increasing amounts of dividends received over the time.